会计英文
本站原创 财务危机预警浅析与运用
周相君 会计0801
Comprises from allover the world are facing the drastic competition. The economic crisis in every经济的迅猛进展，使世界各国企业的经济面对更为激烈的竞争，企业稍有不慎，就可能被卷入失败的漩涡。而任何企业的财务危机逐渐的，，加强财务危机管理，及时企业财务管理中论文范文的问题，及早察觉财务危机发生前的信号，使经营管理者在财务危机出现的萌芽时期采取措施，改善经营管理，是非常必要的。企业财务危机的产生多的理由，仅是企业外部条件会造成企业的财务危机，企业内部经营管理不善也会促发企业的财务危机，为此就必需选择恰当的财务指标，建立的财务危机预警系统，加强企业财务风险的防范，以便在金融危机的大潮下，提前出应急案例和适应当下局势的决策，尽量减少或是避免财务危机为企业的损失和危害，做到防范于未然。
Financial crisiswarning system as a low cost diagnostic tool, can real-time of productionmanagement process and financial status wake up with a start trackingmonitoring, timely financial warning analysis, found that financial status isunusual, to take emergency measures to oid or reduce the loss. Throughout theearly warning of the financial crisis at home and abroad research, althoughalready made gratifying achievements, but the information age, of the existingachievement has been unable to adapt to the changing network digital society.Therefore, this paper makes a period of blank, to the enterprise financialcrisis warning analysis and the application of a study.
财务危机预警系统成本低廉的诊断工具，能实时对公司的生产经营和财务情况惊醒跟踪监控，及时的财务预警浅析，财务情况异常，及时采取应变措施，避免或减少损失。纵观国内外对财务危机预警的 探讨，已可喜的成果，但信息的来临，已有的成果已适应瞬息万变的网络数字社会。，这一时期的空白，对企业财务危机预警的浅析与运用做出 探讨。
Enterprise financialstatement although has the certain hysteresis, but through the analysis,evaluation system enterprise in the past financial management integral effectand trend of change, through the early warning can help enterprise financialmanagement grasp the direction of development. Financial crisis warningfinancial accounting information is for the foundation, through setting andobserve some sensitive index and changes of the enterprise may be or will befaced with financial crisis in a real-time monitoring and predicting the alarm.
由企业经营者决策失误、管理失控外部环境等会导致财务危机。企业财务报表具有的滞后性，但浅析，系统评价企业过去财务管理整体效果和变动走势，预警企业把握财务管理进展方向。财务危机预警是以财务会计信息为，设置并观察一些敏感性指标的变化，对企业可能或将要面对的财务危机做出实时的监控和预测警报。单变量预警模型，多变量预警模型等方式浅析企业的情况。提前财务的信号，以而采取相应的措施，以减少损失，做到信息的未雨绸缪。
In a market econonmyThe purpose of this project is to studythe financial characteristics of “failing” or bankrupt firms in HK and use oneof the most popular financial-distress prediction model(financialratio-discriminant analysis) to work out an”early-warning system” foridentifying “problem”firms. The financial ratio-discriminant analysis model hasbeen widely used in the world.
在市场经济下,生意失败企业破产代表了使得资源配置,一个谨慎的面对问题的方式是识别金融衰退在进步和阻止它的发生。
文章的目的是 探讨香港失败破产公司的财务特点和使用最受欢迎的财务预警模型制作一个“预警系统”寻找“问题”公司。财务预警浅析模型已经被广泛地使用在世界上。
Prediction is always an art and bankruptcy prediction is noexception.journalists and some “insider analysts” are particularly keen incontributing their comments which are normaly based on qualitativeinterpretations. This study is an attempt to utilize the ailable statisticaltool to develop a simple but objective function for investors预测始终是一个艺术,破产预测也不。记者和一些“内部人浅析师”愿意基于定性解释来评论。本 探讨试图现有学术工具来开发一个简单但面向投资者、银行、政府官员和学者,以评估企业的财务情况。
The financial affairs warning systemoverview definition
Through to the financial statementsof the enterprise and related management data analysis, using the timelyfinancial data and the corresponding data management methods, the enterprisehas faced dangerous conditions in advance to business operators and otherstakeholders, and analyzes the cause of the financial crisis enterprisehappening and enterprise financial operation system hidden problems, in orderto make the financial measures to prevent early analysis system.
企业财务预警系统概述定义
对企业财务报表及经营的浅析，及时的财务数据和相应的数据化管理方式，将企业已面对的危险情况预先告知企业经营者和其他利益联系硕士论文人，并浅析企业发生财务危机的理由和企业财务运营系统隐藏的问题，以提早做好防范措施的财务浅析系统。
The function of the financialaffairs warning system
Monitoring function
Diagnosis function
Treatment function
Fitness function
财务预警系统的功能
监测功能
诊断功能
治疗功能
健身功能
The financial affairs warningorganization structure framework
Two kinds of setting mode
*Warning organization memberspart-time, also employ a certain number of external experts, workingindependently, not to intervene directly in the management of the enterprise
*Early warning of the routine workof the organization by some functional departments separate undertaking (suchas finance, auditing, corporate governance office, etc), but must arrange aspecific departments focusing on the relevant matters and arrangements
企业财务预警组织结构框架
两种设置方式
预警组织机构成员，也聘请数量的外部专家，独立开展工作，不干涉企业的经营
预警组织机构的日常工作由某些职能部门承担（如财务部、审计部、企管办等），但安排一个部门处理和安排有关事宜
Financial warning system relatedmechani
Financial warning informationcollection, tranission mechani
Financial risk analysis mechani:through the analysis of financial effect is all quickly ruled out the risk,and will be the main energy may he great effect on the risk. Warning analysissystem is usually two elements
Leading indicators: early evaluationnot beautiful operation condition
The trigger point: preparedemergency plans must start of critical point
Financial risk management mechani
Financial risk responsibilitymechani
财务预警系统机制
财务预警的信息、传递机制
财务风险浅析机制：浅析迅速排除对财务影响小的风险，以而将精力放在可能造成重大影响的风险上。预警浅析系统一般有两个要素
先行指标：早期评测不佳运营情况
扳机点：预先准备的应急计划开始启动的临界点
财务风险处理机制
财务风险责任机制
Financial warning analysistechnology method and mode
According to the analysis of the useof indicators or how many factors of classification
Univariate and multivariate earlywarning and risk early warning and risk
According to the analysis of themain according to classification
Index judgment
Factors judgment: whether to riskfactors appear or appears as alarm probability rule
According to analysis the analyticmethod classification
Qualitative analysis andquantitative analysis
财务预警浅析的技术策略与方式
按浅析时指标或因素的多少分类
单变量预警风险和多变量预警风险
按浅析判断时采取的分类
指标判断
因素判断：以风险因素出现或出现的概率报警准则
按浅析所的浅析策略分类
定性浅析和定量浅析
(a) 1, standardization surveys
Through the professional people,company, society, etc, the enterprise may be run into problems of detailedsurvey and analysis, the report form file for enterprise operator methods. Theproposed problems with common, generality, but could not provide enterprisespecific problem
2, "(three months) fundturnover table" analysis method
Not yet determined three months thecapital turnover table, itself is a problem
If the system has good table, tofind out into the next months of carry forward the forehead is accounted formore than 20% of the payment of the bill payment is in 60% of sales amount thefollowing (wholesalers) or below 40% (manufacturing).
倘已制好了表，要查明转入下一个月的结转额占总收入的20%，付款票据的支付额在销售额的60%（批发商）或40%（制造业）。
The flow charts of each stage, eachlink, each assets and each specific business activities, item by item,investigation and analysis, and control risk list, determine the risk of theenterprise may be faced with;
In the analytical process, inaddition to a certain stage analysis because of the money to the poor movementrisk, still should put the whole capital movement process of the combinedinvestigation, overall identification enterprise to face a variety of risk.
对流程图的每一阶段、每
4, management evaluation method
The characteristics of theenterprise management and can lead to the bankruptcy of the enterprise, errorand signs defects compared scoring, and according to the project of thebankruptcy process the extent of the impact they were weighted processing.Total score is 100 minutes, enterprise income with higher scores the worsesituation.
Each and every one of the score iseither zero or is full marks, can't give middle points. The fraction indicatesthat the extent of the bad management enterprise. If the score total more than25 points, it shows that the enterprise is facing the risk of failure; If thescore total more than 35 points, it shows that the enterprise is in seriouscrisis; Enterprise security score less than 18 points.
If less than 25 points total score,but "mistakes" column scores more than 15 points, this enterprisestill faces a crisis, but this crisis can be improved by strengthening ormanagement to solve.
Management evaluation method thinkthe enterprise executives from the failure of bad management, this method issimple to understand, the effective, but its effect depends on whether to begraded enterprise and its managers he direct, the thorough understanding.
每得分要么是零分要么是满分，给中间分。所给的分数企业管理不善的。评分总计超过25 分，企业正面对失败的危险；评分总计超过35 分，企业正的危机中；企业的安全得分一般小于18 分。
如评分总计小于25 分，但“错误”栏分数超过15分，该企业仍面对某种危机，但危机可加强或改善管理来解决。
管理评分法企业失败高管层的经营不善， 策略简单易懂，行之，但其效果取决否对被评分企业管理者有、深入的。
(b) 1, single variable mode
Using a single variable, withindividual financial ratios of the model to predict the financial crisis
(1) The main rate
Debt university = cash flow/totalliabilities
The return on assets = netprofit/total assets
The asset-liability ratio = totaldebt/total assets
(2) "To interest and bill discount chargeis about the proportion of sales judgment
（1）财务比率法
比率
债务保障率=流量/债务总额
资产收益率=净利润/资产总额
资产负债率=负债总额/资产总额
（2）“利息及票据贴现费用”判别浅析法
以利息及票据贴现费用占销售额的比例判断
(3) Simple think the enterprise stockprices continue to fall is the enterprise manages the precursor of failure
Limitations:
Select indicators are controversial
Not to be able to predict Will be affected by the effect ofinflation;
Susceptible to"creative accounting method" influence.
（3）企业股市跟踪法
简单企业股票的持续下降是企业经营失败的前兆
缺陷：
选择指标有争议
够预测可能及何时破产；
会受到通货膨胀的影响；
易受到“创造性会计策略”影响。
2, the multivariate mode
Use multiple financial indicators tocomprehensive reflection of enterprise's financial condition, and based onthis, the establishment of early warning model forecast.
(1) Safety >Safety >= [existing (expected)sales-break-even sales] / existing (estimated) sales
Xiaolongtan buzhaoba funds (fundssecurity Angle)
Capital xiaolongtan buzhaoba =(asset recovery amount-FuZhaiE) / assets carrying amount
= liquidity-the asset-liabilityratio
（1）企业安全率
安全边际率（经营安全角度）
安全边际率=安全边际额/现有（预计）销售额
=[现有（预计）销售额-保本销售额] /现有（预计）销售额
资金安全率（资金安全角度）
资金安全率=（资产变额－负债额）/资产账面金额
=资产变现率－资产负债率
SHAPE \* MERGEFORMAT Ⅳ 安全边际率
资金安全率
Ⅰ
两个指标企业安全率判断
第Ⅰ象限，情况良好，应采取有计划经营扩张对策；
第Ⅱ象限，情况尚好，但市场销售能力
第Ⅲ象限，经营不善，随时有倒闭的可能
第Ⅳ象限，财务情况已露出险兆
SHAPE \* MERGEFORMAT
周相君 会计0801
Comprises from allover the world are facing the drastic competition. The economic crisis in every经济的迅猛进展，使世界各国企业的经济面对更为激烈的竞争，企业稍有不慎，就可能被卷入失败的漩涡。而任何企业的财务危机逐渐的，，加强财务危机管理，及时企业财务管理中论文范文的问题，及早察觉财务危机发生前的信号，使经营管理者在财务危机出现的萌芽时期采取措施，改善经营管理，是非常必要的。企业财务危机的产生多的理由，仅是企业外部条件会造成企业的财务危机，企业内部经营管理不善也会促发企业的财务危机，为此就必需选择恰当的财务指标，建立的财务危机预警系统，加强企业财务风险的防范，以便在金融危机的大潮下，提前出应急案例和适应当下局势的决策，尽量减少或是避免财务危机为企业的损失和危害，做到防范于未然。
Financial crisiswarning system as a low cost diagnostic tool, can real-time of productionmanagement process and financial status wake up with a start trackingmonitoring, timely financial warning analysis, found that financial status isunusual, to take emergency measures to oid or reduce the loss. Throughout theearly warning of the financial crisis at home and abroad research, althoughalready made gratifying achievements, but the information age, of the existingachievement has been unable to adapt to the changing network digital society.Therefore, this paper makes a period of blank, to the enterprise financialcrisis warning analysis and the application of a study.
财务危机预警系统成本低廉的诊断工具，能实时对公司的生产经营和财务情况惊醒跟踪监控，及时的财务预警浅析，财务情况异常，及时采取应变措施，避免或减少损失。纵观国内外对财务危机预警的 探讨，已可喜的成果，但信息的来临，已有的成果已适应瞬息万变的网络数字社会。，这一时期的空白，对企业财务危机预警的浅析与运用做出 探讨。
Enterprise financialstatement although has the certain hysteresis, but through the analysis,evaluation system enterprise in the past financial management integral effectand trend of change, through the early warning can help enterprise financialmanagement grasp the direction of development. Financial crisis warningfinancial accounting information is for the foundation, through setting andobserve some sensitive index and changes of the enterprise may be or will befaced with financial crisis in a real-time monitoring and predicting the alarm.
由企业经营者决策失误、管理失控外部环境等会导致财务危机。企业财务报表具有的滞后性，但浅析，系统评价企业过去财务管理整体效果和变动走势，预警企业把握财务管理进展方向。财务危机预警是以财务会计信息为，设置并观察一些敏感性指标的变化，对企业可能或将要面对的财务危机做出实时的监控和预测警报。单变量预警模型，多变量预警模型等方式浅析企业的情况。提前财务的信号，以而采取相应的措施，以减少损失，做到信息的未雨绸缪。
In a market econonmyThe purpose of this project is to studythe financial characteristics of “failing” or bankrupt firms in HK and use oneof the most popular financial-distress prediction model(financialratio-discriminant analysis) to work out an”early-warning system” foridentifying “problem”firms. The financial ratio-discriminant analysis model hasbeen widely used in the world.
在市场经济下,生意失败企业破产代表了使得资源配置,一个谨慎的面对问题的方式是识别金融衰退在进步和阻止它的发生。
文章的目的是 探讨香港失败破产公司的财务特点和使用最受欢迎的财务预警模型制作一个“预警系统”寻找“问题”公司。财务预警浅析模型已经被广泛地使用在世界上。
Prediction is always an art and bankruptcy prediction is noexception.journalists and some “insider analysts” are particularly keen incontributing their comments which are normaly based on qualitativeinterpretations. This study is an attempt to utilize the ailable statisticaltool to develop a simple but objective function for investors预测始终是一个艺术,破产预测也不。记者和一些“内部人浅析师”愿意基于定性解释来评论。本 探讨试图现有学术工具来开发一个简单但面向投资者、银行、政府官员和学者,以评估企业的财务情况。
The financial affairs warning systemoverview definition
Through to the financial statementsof the enterprise and related management data analysis, using the timelyfinancial data and the corresponding data management methods, the enterprisehas faced dangerous conditions in advance to business operators and otherstakeholders, and analyzes the cause of the financial crisis enterprisehappening and enterprise financial operation system hidden problems, in orderto make the financial measures to prevent early analysis system.
企业财务预警系统概述定义
对企业财务报表及经营的浅析，及时的财务数据和相应的数据化管理方式，将企业已面对的危险情况预先告知企业经营者和其他利益联系硕士论文人，并浅析企业发生财务危机的理由和企业财务运营系统隐藏的问题，以提早做好防范措施的财务浅析系统。
The function of the financialaffairs warning system
Monitoring function
Diagnosis function
Treatment function
Fitness function
财务预警系统的功能
监测功能
诊断功能
治疗功能
健身功能
The financial affairs warningorganization structure framework
Two kinds of setting mode
*Warning organization memberspart-time, also employ a certain number of external experts, workingindependently, not to intervene directly in the management of the enterprise
*Early warning of the routine workof the organization by some functional departments separate undertaking (suchas finance, auditing, corporate governance office, etc), but must arrange aspecific departments focusing on the relevant matters and arrangements
企业财务预警组织结构框架
两种设置方式
预警组织机构成员，也聘请数量的外部专家，独立开展工作，不干涉企业的经营
预警组织机构的日常工作由某些职能部门承担（如财务部、审计部、企管办等），但安排一个部门处理和安排有关事宜
Financial warning system relatedmechani
Financial warning informationcollection, tranission mechani
Financial risk analysis mechani:through the analysis of financial effect is all quickly ruled out the risk,and will be the main energy may he great effect on the risk. Warning analysissystem is usually two elements
Leading indicators: early evaluationnot beautiful operation condition
The trigger point: preparedemergency plans must start of critical point
Financial risk management mechani
Financial risk responsibilitymechani
财务预警系统机制
财务预警的信息、传递机制
财务风险浅析机制：浅析迅速排除对财务影响小的风险，以而将精力放在可能造成重大影响的风险上。预警浅析系统一般有两个要素
先行指标：早期评测不佳运营情况
扳机点：预先准备的应急计划开始启动的临界点
财务风险处理机制
财务风险责任机制
Financial warning analysistechnology method and mode
According to the analysis of the useof indicators or how many factors of classification
Univariate and multivariate earlywarning and risk early warning and risk
According to the analysis of themain according to classification
Index judgment
Factors judgment: whether to riskfactors appear or appears as alarm probability rule
According to analysis the analyticmethod classification
Qualitative analysis andquantitative analysis
财务预警浅析的技术策略与方式
按浅析时指标或因素的多少分类
单变量预警风险和多变量预警风险
按浅析判断时采取的分类
指标判断
因素判断：以风险因素出现或出现的概率报警准则
按浅析所的浅析策略分类
定性浅析和定量浅析
(a) 1, standardization surveys
Through the professional people,company, society, etc, the enterprise may be run into problems of detailedsurvey and analysis, the report form file for enterprise operator methods. Theproposed problems with common, generality, but could not provide enterprisespecific problem
(一)定性预警浅析
1、标准化调查法
专业人士、公司、协会等，就企业可能碰到的问题调查与浅析，形成报告文件供企业经营者使用的策略。所的问题具有共性，具有普适性，但企业的特定问题2, "(three months) fundturnover table" analysis method
Not yet determined three months thecapital turnover table, itself is a problem
If the system has good table, tofind out into the next months of carry forward the forehead is accounted formore than 20% of the payment of the bill payment is in 60% of sales amount thefollowing (wholesalers) or below 40% (manufacturing).
2、“（三个月）资金周转表”浅析法
未三个月资金周转表，本身是个问题倘已制好了表，要查明转入下一个月的结转额占总收入的20%，付款票据的支付额在销售额的60%（批发商）或40%（制造业）。
3、flow chartanalysis method
According to the actual situation ofthe flow chart of construction enterprise, to display the enterprise of allbusiness activities;The flow charts of each stage, eachlink, each assets and each specific business activities, item by item,investigation and analysis, and control risk list, determine the risk of theenterprise may be faced with;
In the analytical process, inaddition to a certain stage analysis because of the money to the poor movementrisk, still should put the whole capital movement process of the combinedinvestigation, overall identification enterprise to face a variety of risk.
3、流程图浅析法
企业的实际情况构建流程图，以展示企业的全部经营活动；对流程图的每一阶段、每
一、每种资产和每一经营活动逐项调查浅析，并对照风险清单，确定企业可能面对的风险；
在浅析中， 除了浅析某一阶段资金运动不畅导致的风险，还应把整个资金运动的考察，以整体上识别企业面对的风险。4, management evaluation method
The characteristics of theenterprise management and can lead to the bankruptcy of the enterprise, errorand signs defects compared scoring, and according to the project of thebankruptcy process the extent of the impact they were weighted processing.Total score is 100 minutes, enterprise income with higher scores the worsesituation.
Each and every one of the score iseither zero or is full marks, can't give middle points. The fraction indicatesthat the extent of the bad management enterprise. If the score total more than25 points, it shows that the enterprise is facing the risk of failure; If thescore total more than 35 points, it shows that the enterprise is in seriouscrisis; Enterprise security score less than 18 points.
If less than 25 points total score,but "mistakes" column scores more than 15 points, this enterprisestill faces a crisis, but this crisis can be improved by strengthening ormanagement to solve.
Management evaluation method thinkthe enterprise executives from the failure of bad management, this method issimple to understand, the effective, but its effect depends on whether to begraded enterprise and its managers he direct, the thorough understanding.
4、管理评分法
对企业的管理特性及可能导致企业破产的缺陷、错误和征兆比较打分，并这些项目对破产产生影响的对它们了加权处理。总分是100 分，企业所得分数越高，处境越差。每得分要么是零分要么是满分，给中间分。所给的分数企业管理不善的。评分总计超过25 分，企业正面对失败的危险；评分总计超过35 分，企业正的危机中；企业的安全得分一般小于18 分。
如评分总计小于25 分，但“错误”栏分数超过15分，该企业仍面对某种危机，但危机可加强或改善管理来解决。
管理评分法企业失败高管层的经营不善， 策略简单易懂，行之，但其效果取决否对被评分企业管理者有、深入的。
(b) 1, single variable mode
Using a single variable, withindividual financial ratios of the model to predict the financial crisis
(1) The main rate
Debt university = cash flow/totalliabilities
The return on assets = netprofit/total assets
The asset-liability ratio = totaldebt/total assets
(2) "To interest and bill discount chargeis about the proportion of sales judgment
1、单变量方式
运用单一变量，用个别财务比率来预测财务危机的模型（1）财务比率法
比率
债务保障率=流量/债务总额
资产收益率=净利润/资产总额
资产负债率=负债总额/资产总额
（2）“利息及票据贴现费用”判别浅析法
以利息及票据贴现费用占销售额的比例判断
(3) Simple think the enterprise stockprices continue to fall is the enterprise manages the precursor of failure
Limitations:
Select indicators are controversial
Not to be able to predict Will be affected by the effect ofinflation;
Susceptible to"creative accounting method" influence.
（3）企业股市跟踪法
简单企业股票的持续下降是企业经营失败的前兆
缺陷：
选择指标有争议
够预测可能及何时破产；
会受到通货膨胀的影响；
易受到“创造性会计策略”影响。
2, the multivariate mode
Use multiple financial indicators tocomprehensive reflection of enterprise's financial condition, and based onthis, the establishment of early warning model forecast.
(1) Safety >Safety >= [existing (expected)sales-break-even sales] / existing (estimated) sales
Xiaolongtan buzhaoba funds (fundssecurity Angle)
Capital xiaolongtan buzhaoba =(asset recovery amount-FuZhaiE) / assets carrying amount
= liquidity-the asset-liabilityratio
2、多变量方式
运用多个财务指标来综合企业的财务情况，并在此上建立预警模型预测。（1）企业安全率
安全边际率（经营安全角度）
安全边际率=安全边际额/现有（预计）销售额
=[现有（预计）销售额-保本销售额] /现有（预计）销售额
资金安全率（资金安全角度）
资金安全率=（资产变额－负债额）/资产账面金额
=资产变现率－资产负债率
SHAPE \* MERGEFORMAT Ⅳ 安全边际率
资金安全率
Ⅰ
两个指标企业安全率判断
第Ⅰ象限，情况良好，应采取有计划经营扩张对策；
第Ⅱ象限，情况尚好，但市场销售能力
第Ⅲ象限，经营不善，随时有倒闭的可能
第Ⅳ象限，财务情况已露出险兆
SHAPE \* MERGEFORMAT