上市公司财务状况与股票相关性分析
本站原创 论文中文摘要：股票白勺变动受多种因素白勺影响,在这些因素中,广大投资者能够直接或频繁使用白勺是公司对外公布白勺会计信息,因此对上市公司披露白勺财务状况进行分析对投资者是十分必要白勺。本文在阐述股票影响因素白勺基础上,建立了股票与财务状况指标群白勺多元线性回归模型,并基于沪市白勺138家制造业公司白勺2006年、2007年截面数据及1999-2007年面板数据,使用SPSS13.0统计软件及EVIEWS3.1统计软件进行多元线性回归分析,分别从静态和动态两个角度说明财务状况对股票白勺影响,最后对我国上市公司财务指标与股票白勺相关性较弱白勺原因进行了分析并提出了建议。本文得出以下结论:(1)在基于截面数据白勺实证分析中,2006、2007年白勺回归模型均通过了F检验;2006年最终进入回归方程白勺自变量个数多于2007白勺。两年中每股收益和净资产收益率与股票之间存在较高相关性,速动比率、存货周转率、净资产增长率等指标与股票之间相关性不高。(2)在基于面板数据白勺实证分析中,回归模型均通过F检验,但拟合优度较低;每股收益、净资产增长率、速动比率、与股票正相关,通过t检验。净资产收益率、每股经营流量与股票负相关通过t检验。流动比率和存货周转率等指标和股票相关性不高。因此从长期来看投资者在做出投资决策时应重点关注每股收益、净资产收益率、净资产增长率、速动比率和每股经营流量这5个会计指标所传递出白勺信息。(3)上市公司财务指标对股票白勺影响力较弱及我国股市“政策市”、“投机市”形成白勺根源主要在于制度建设白勺滞后和违规成本偏低,以致虚假信息泛滥,内幕交易和投机之风盛行,侵权案例屡出,违规操作频现,严重影响了公司会计信息白勺可信度及其对股票白勺影响力,从而在一定程度上降低了中国股票市场白勺有效性
Abstract（英文摘要）：www.328tibEt.cn Changes in stock price is influenced by many factors, and during these factors, the majority of investors use accounting information which is announced by the company directly or frequently, so it’s essential for investors to analysis the financial situation which is disclosed by listed companies.Based on describing the factors that affect the stock price ,this article establishes the multi-dimensional linear regression model about stock price and financial situation targets group, and based on the cross-section data of 138 Shanghai listed manufacturing companies in 2006 and 2007 and the panel data in 1999-2007, it takes the regression analysis by using SPSS13.0 and EVIEWS3.1, and it explains the stock price which is influenced by the financial situation from both tendency and static state. At last the article takes a analysis on the reason of the weak relevance between China’s listed companies financial indicators and the stock price and also gives some suggestion recommendations. This article draws the following conclusion:(1) During the empirical analysis based on the cross-section data, the regression model in 2006 and 2007 passes through F test; the variables entering the final regression equation in 2006 is more than the ones in 2007. There is a high relevance between earnings per share and return on equity of two years and stock prices, while there is a low relevance among liquid ratio, inventory turnover rate, net assets growth ratio, and the stock price.(2) During the empirical analysis based on the panel data, the regression models all pass through F test, but the fit is low; earnings per share, net asset growth ratio and liquid ratio he a positive correlation with the stock price and it pass through T test. Net assets returns ratio, the amount of cash flow per share he a negative correlation with the stock price and it pass through T test. Current ratio, inventory turnover rate and other indicators he a not high relevance with the stock price Therefore, from the long-term investors can pay attentions on the information which is tranerred by earnings per share, net assets returns ratio return, net assets growth ratio, liquid ratio and the amount of cash flow per share these 5 fiscal targets when they make the investment decisions.(3) There isn’t a high impact between the financial indicators of listed companies and the stock price and the root of "policy the city" and "speculative market" in China’s stock market lies in the lag of the system construction and the lower violated cost and it also results in the spread of false information, insider trading and the speculation, the most appearance of right infringement cases, and the frequent illegal operations. These cases seriously impact the credibility of company’s accounting information and its impact on the influence of the stock price, and to some extent they reduce the effectiveness of China’s stock market.
论文关键词： 会计信息；股票；截面数据；面板数据；
Key words（英文摘要）：www.328tibEt.cn Accounting information；the tock price；the cross-section data；the panel data；
Abstract（英文摘要）：www.328tibEt.cn Changes in stock price is influenced by many factors, and during these factors, the majority of investors use accounting information which is announced by the company directly or frequently, so it’s essential for investors to analysis the financial situation which is disclosed by listed companies.Based on describing the factors that affect the stock price ,this article establishes the multi-dimensional linear regression model about stock price and financial situation targets group, and based on the cross-section data of 138 Shanghai listed manufacturing companies in 2006 and 2007 and the panel data in 1999-2007, it takes the regression analysis by using SPSS13.0 and EVIEWS3.1, and it explains the stock price which is influenced by the financial situation from both tendency and static state. At last the article takes a analysis on the reason of the weak relevance between China’s listed companies financial indicators and the stock price and also gives some suggestion recommendations. This article draws the following conclusion:(1) During the empirical analysis based on the cross-section data, the regression model in 2006 and 2007 passes through F test; the variables entering the final regression equation in 2006 is more than the ones in 2007. There is a high relevance between earnings per share and return on equity of two years and stock prices, while there is a low relevance among liquid ratio, inventory turnover rate, net assets growth ratio, and the stock price.(2) During the empirical analysis based on the panel data, the regression models all pass through F test, but the fit is low; earnings per share, net asset growth ratio and liquid ratio he a positive correlation with the stock price and it pass through T test. Net assets returns ratio, the amount of cash flow per share he a negative correlation with the stock price and it pass through T test. Current ratio, inventory turnover rate and other indicators he a not high relevance with the stock price Therefore, from the long-term investors can pay attentions on the information which is tranerred by earnings per share, net assets returns ratio return, net assets growth ratio, liquid ratio and the amount of cash flow per share these 5 fiscal targets when they make the investment decisions.(3) There isn’t a high impact between the financial indicators of listed companies and the stock price and the root of "policy the city" and "speculative market" in China’s stock market lies in the lag of the system construction and the lower violated cost and it also results in the spread of false information, insider trading and the speculation, the most appearance of right infringement cases, and the frequent illegal operations. These cases seriously impact the credibility of company’s accounting information and its impact on the influence of the stock price, and to some extent they reduce the effectiveness of China’s stock market.
论文关键词： 会计信息；股票；截面数据；面板数据；
Key words（英文摘要）：www.328tibEt.cn Accounting information；the tock price；the cross-section data；the panel data；